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AP

Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. (APAM)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 revenue rose 7% q/q and 8% y/y to $301.3M, while adjusted operating margin expanded 450 bps q/q to 36.2% on lower fixed expenses; GAAP operating margin was 33.8% vs 28.2% in Q2 .
  • Adjusted EPS beat consensus ($1.02 vs $0.97*) despite a slight revenue miss ($301.3M vs $304.4M*), driven by margin expansion; GAAP diluted EPS was $0.93, impacted by a non‑cash $10.7M tax charge from new legislation (OBBBA) .
  • AUM reached a record $181.3B (avg AUM $177.4B), with net outflows of $2.3B this quarter; management cited rebalancing in wealth programs and ongoing outflows in a few large equity strategies, partly offset by strength in EM and Credit .
  • Dividend was raised to $0.88 (+21% q/q) and management flagged typical Q4 seasonality: $900M of mutual fund distributions not expected to be reinvested and potential performance fees similar to 2024 ($17M) as year‑end measurement approaches .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Margin execution: Adjusted operating margin expanded to 36.2% (31.7% in Q2) as fixed expenses declined and revenues rose; CFO: “Revenue growth… and lower fixed expenses led to margin expansion of 450 bps and a 23% increase in earnings vs Q2” .
  • Record scale and diversification: AUM hit $181.3B with strong strategy performance breadth; CEO highlighted platform diversity (equities, credit, alternatives) and multiple strategies with >20% YTD returns and positive relative performance .
  • Capital return and balance sheet: Variable dividend increased to $0.88; cash was $300.2M, leverage ratio 0.4x; $50M Series G notes issued at 5.43% to refinance maturing notes, preserving flexibility .

What Went Wrong

  • Organic pressure: Net outflows of $2.3B this quarter (vs $(1.9)B in Q2), with three sizable rebalances in intermediated wealth affecting International Value and International Small‑Mid; trailing 1‑yr underperformance in some large equity strategies weighed sentiment .
  • Slight top‑line miss vs consensus and no performance fees in Q3; performance fees typically accrue in Q4 (only ~3% of AUM has fee components) .
  • Regulatory/tax headwind: Enactment of OBBBA caused a non‑cash $10.7M tax charge in Q3 and is expected to lift GAAP/adjusted effective tax rates by 1%–3% starting in 2027 .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025 ActualQ3 2025 Consensus
Revenue ($M)$279.6 $282.8 $301.3 $304.4*
GAAP Diluted EPS$1.03 $0.94 $0.93
Adjusted EPS (per adjusted share)$0.92 $0.83 $1.02 $0.97*
Operating Margin (GAAP)33.3% 28.2% 33.8%
Adjusted Operating Margin35.0% 31.7% 36.2%

Values with asterisks (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment/Vehicle AUM and Flows

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Ending AUM – Funds/Global Funds ($B)$81.1 $85.6 $88.0
Ending AUM – Separate Accts & Other ($B)$86.8 $89.9 $93.3
Total Ending AUM ($B)$167.8 $175.5 $181.3
Average AUM ($B)$162.8 $166.8 $177.4
Gross Inflows ($B)$6.21 $6.23 $6.08
Gross Outflows ($B)$(6.95) $(8.10) $(8.41)
Net Client Cash Flows ($B)$(0.74) $(1.86) $(2.33)

KPIs and Other Financials

KPIQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Operating Income (GAAP, $M)$93.2 $79.8 $101.8
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$103.6 $94.2 $114.4
Cash & Equivalents ($M)$201.2 (FY end) $244.9 $300.2
Total Borrowings ($M)$200.0 (FY end) $199.5 $190.0
Debt Leverage Ratio0.5x 0.4x
Variable Dividend/Share$0.73 $0.88
Performance Fees ($M)— (Q2 had none disclosed)N/A in Q3 table; Q4 is key

Non-GAAP notes: Adjusted measures exclude (among other items) market valuation changes in comp plans, investment product gains/losses, non-recurring expenses, and the OBBBA deferred tax adjustment; reconciliations provided by the company .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent Guidance/CommentaryChange
Fixed expense growthFY2025Mid-single digits (reaffirmed from earlier 2025 commentary) Tracking at or slightly better than mid-single digits; 2026 budget in process Maintained
Mutual fund distributions not reinvestedQ4 2025~$(0.9)B expected not to be reinvested in Q4 New color
Performance fees (total)FY20252024 actual ~$17M (4Q seasonal) Projecting 2025 total “similar to 2024,” subject to year-end markets; ~3% of AUM has PFs Maintained (qualitative)
Dividend policyOngoing~80% of quarterly cash generation; year-end special considered Reiterated; declared $0.88 for Q3 2025 (≈80% of cash) Maintained (q/q up)
Effective tax rate impactFrom 2027OBBBA to raise GAAP/adjusted ETR by 1%–3% from 2027 New structural headwind
Capital/financing2025Plan to refinance Aug-2025 notes Issued $50M 5.43% Series G notes (Aug 15) and repaid $60M Series D maturity (Aug 16) Executed

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025, Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Intermediated wealth build-outPivot to “sold” model; headcount increases; ~60% AUM from wealth; >170 large relationships Reoriented comp to sales, doubled field force, targeting UK wealth and Middle East; early “green shoots” Improving execution
Product “vehicle” modernizationDiscussed evolving wrappers for wealth appeal Expanding into models, SMAs, ETFs, semi-liquid and private funds Accelerating
Alternatives/private marketsEvaluating structures (private credit, alt wrappers) Active pipeline in real estate, private credit, secondaries; near‑term focus on real estate; sizes modest, multiple financing options Building pipeline
EM and non‑U.S. demandEMsights and EM equities building track records and flows Renewed demand in EM and non‑U.S.; multiple EM strategies positive flows YTD; growing global mandates interest Strengthening
Expense disciplineFixed expense growth mid-single digits; margin sensitivity to PF seasonality Fixed expenses slightly down q/q; Q4 seasonal items noted; guidance unchanged Stable
Rebalancing headwindsLarge DC rebalance (Q1) Three sizable wealth rebalances (Intl Value, Intl Small‑Mid) in Q3; one small Australia termination Persistent in up markets
Performance fees seasonalityQ4 as key period Expect PFs similar to 2024; year-end measurement 12/31 Seasonal tailwind ahead

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “Revenues increased 7% from last quarter… Our operating margin… improving meaningfully to 34% or 36% on an adjusted basis… quarter end AUM of $181.3 billion, our highest ever quarter-end AUM” .
  • CEO on flows and strategy: “While we experienced $2.3 billion of net outflows in the quarter, business-development momentum is improving… We are capitalizing on the resurgence of interest in emerging markets… renewed and growing interest in [Global Equity/Value]… growing and diversifying the Credit team’s business” .
  • CFO: “Revenue growth… and lower fixed expenses led to margin expansion of 450 basis points and a 23% increase in earnings compared to [Q2]… Adjusted net income per adjusted share was up 23% q/q and 11% y/y” .
  • CFO on Q4 setup: “We anticipate approximately $900 million of… distributions will not be reinvested… We are currently projecting total performance fees similar to… 2024… [~3% of AUM has performance fees]” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Non‑U.S./EM demand: Broadening interest across global mandates and EM (equity and credit) with positive flows and strong relative results; some peers’ PM changes create “money in motion” .
  • Distribution reorientation: Sales‑oriented comp, doubled field team, UK wealth/Middle East expansion, and dedicated capital formation initiatives; vehicle modernization (models/SMAs/ETFs/semi‑liquid/private) underway .
  • M&A/lift‑outs: Active in real estate, private credit, secondaries; deals not transformative; flexible consideration (cash, stock, leverage) with preference for cash given deal sizes .
  • Outflows/rebalancing: Three large rebalances in intermediated wealth (Intl Value, Intl Small‑Mid); one small Australia termination given local regulatory shifts toward passive/in‑house .
  • Expense outlook: 2025 fixed expense growth tracking mid‑single digits, possibly slightly better; 2026 budget ongoing .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 results vs S&P Global consensus: revenue $301.3M vs $304.4M* (slight miss); adjusted EPS $1.02 vs $0.97* (beat). Beat driven by q/q revenue growth and expense control (fixed expenses down slightly q/q), expanding adjusted margin to 36.2% .
  • Implication: Models likely need higher margins and adjusted EPS, but modestly lower near‑term net flows and slightly lower revenue trajectory vs prior consensus until flow momentum improves; Q4 seasonality (distributions not reinvested, performance fees) adds volatility to top/bottom line .
    Values marked with asterisks (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Margin leverage is working: Adjusted operating margin expanded to 36.2% on modest top‑line growth, supporting the EPS beat despite slight revenue miss .
  • Scale and diversification provide resilience: Record AUM ($181.3B) and breadth in equities/credit/alternatives help offset rebalancing/outflow pockets .
  • Wealth channel execution is the swing factor: Expanded sales footprint, vehicle modernization, and targeted campaigns (e.g., EM) are beginning to gain traction—watch gross sales inflection over coming quarters .
  • Near‑term noise in Q4: Expect ~$900M of fund distributions not reinvested and variable performance fees (likely similar to 2024) to shape 4Q reported metrics .
  • Dividend remains attractive and variable: $0.88 declared (~80% of cash generation), with potential year‑end special from retained cash and seed gains .
  • Tax headwind from 2027: OBBBA lifts effective tax rate by 1%–3%—incorporate into LT EPS valuation frameworks .
  • Strategic optionality: Real estate/private credit/secondaries opportunities are pipeline catalysts; management intends disciplined, non‑transformative bolt‑ons .